Spotting a horse that is ready to win a race is not always easy. In fact, it is often the horse that at first seems least likely to win that puts in a lot of effort and wins. When that happens, they pay well and surprise a lot of people. On the other hand, someone bet on that broker, but why?

First of all, there will always be people who bet on long shots who almost never bet on a favourite. So in any race, when a horse wins and it’s an underdog, some of those people will have it. Then there are the number players or the people who play it because of its color or name. There could be any one of hundreds of reasons why someone might have endorsed that one.

On the other hand, there may be a very good and logical reason why the horse is on its back. For handicaps who know what to look for, to know when a horse is ready to race, the handicap in horse racing is no mystery.

What I look for when choosing horses that I think will run well and possibly win the race can be put into several categories.

First of all, there is the visual category, that is, simply looking at the animal and evaluating its appearance. When a horse is fit and ready, his coat is dappled. The racing dimple, the crease along its hind rump, is deeply wrinkled. In the post parade you will have an arched neck and a slight bounce to your step as if you were on springs. When he is warming up, he will move fluidly and show no signs of limping. If you are at the track and can check the horses out before the race, this is a great way to start the judging process.

The second key to finding the fit and ready horse is to use past performances to spot a horse that has raced at or above the same class level as your current competition. It must have been competitive at that level. It would be nice if this process was as simple as looking at the speed figures or the stock value, but unfortunately it isn’t. Every horse you face today must also be tested to determine his true class and skill level and then compared to today’s riders. That’s a job for a computer. However, interpreting the data, once the numbers have been crunched, is still a job for an experienced forecaster.

Although a horse lost his last race, he may have performed at the level of the current class, considering the pace and skill level of the competition in previous races. That’s why a horse that was fifth in his last race can still win today’s race, and yet to most people the horse doesn’t seem ready to win.