3 steps to setting up a daily fantasy hockey lineup

3 steps to setting up a daily fantasy hockey lineup

If you’re new to everyday fantasy hockey, establishing a lineup can be a daunting task. However, to have a fair chance of getting a return on your investment, all you need to do is apply a few simple tactics. Research can take a long time, but it usually pays off at the end of the night. Let us begin.

Step # 1: extrapolate the potential offense

If you are unfamiliar with NHL talent, you can rely on statistics to show you the way. Look for teams that yield a lot of goals and exploit them by starting one of your opponent’s defensive lines / units (step 2) that scores a lot of goals. However, you must be careful not to rely on too small a sample size as an indication of poor defense or formidable offense. If a team has played less than 10 games, it may be a coincidence that they have allowed 4 goals per game. Maybe they recently made a goalkeeper change or recovered an injured star from injury. You can also use statistics from the previous season. However, again you need to be careful and make sure there were no major changes to the team roster during the offseason. Also, look at the recent game log. Contrary to what I said earlier, hockey is a streaky sport. If a team has scored 20 goals in 4 games, the odds are in their favor that they continue to play well. I am not trying to confuse you, but to encourage you to view a combination from all angles. You can also look at the Las Vegas lines to see which teams are the favorites in games with a 5.5 over / under. The lowest standard is 5, so 5.5 means that the public expects a higher score than usual. Any team favored by more than -150 in these games (or not at all) is expected to score 3-4 goals. I recommend looking at the stats first, choosing 2 or more teams that you think will have a good offensive night, and then confirming that your suspicions are legitimate by looking at the line of play. Simply relying on the lines of play can be disastrous. Remember, the odds makers set the line at the point they calculate that you will draw the same amount of money on each side. They are experts in predicting the behavior of the bettors, not the results of the game. So now that you’ve decided which teams will score enough, it’s time to decide which specific players to include on the roster.

Step # 2: Identify offensive lines, defensive units, and power play units.

Each team includes 18 offensive players, usually 12 forwards and 6 defenders. Forwards play in groups of 3 for about a minute before substituting for the next group of 3 or “line” (hockey is that exhausting). Defenders play in groups of 2, but they are not both substituting as often as 3 forwards. The defender skates much less than the forwards and can therefore often stay in the game for longer periods of time. The point is: it is difficult to predict which fellow players a defender will share time with on the ice during the game. Each team also has 2 power play units that are used to increase the chances of scoring when they have a men’s advantage. Look to add a full line, perhaps in conjunction with a defender or goalkeeper (below), from a team that you think will score a lot of goals. When considering an offensive line, check to see if everyone plays together in a power play unit as well. Check if everyone gets enough time on ice (TOI). A player on a third or fourth line can get significantly less TOI than their line mates. It may seem counterintuitive to add 3 or 4 players from the same team, but a goal scored with 3 or 4 of your players on the ice will bombard your opponent. For example, if you have 4 players on the ice and one of them scores with the help of another (or even 2), you will have already collected enough offensive points to win many head-to-head games, depending on the scoring system. If the other team scores with your players on the ice, this tactic (commonly called stacking) can also quickly make you lose points, but that’s the risk we take in establishing a favorable lineup. Of course, having the front row of a team with one defender playing all three in the first power play unit is ideal, but the budget doesn’t always allow it. Don’t be afraid to start a second or third line of teams in a favorable match. Especially if the line sticks in the second power unit. All in all, the philosophy is to pick offensive players based on pairing, as opposed to talent level. The opposite is true with goalies.

Step # 3: choose the elite goalkeepers

It’s always a good strategy to start the most talented goalkeepers on talented teams when setting up your lineup. They are often the most expensive options, but for good reason. A goalkeeper plays the entire match (ideally) and has the opportunity to score at any time. In most scoring systems, a dominant performance that tends towards goal will yield more points than a dominant offensive performance and it is much easier to predict which high-priced goalkeeper will allow few goals in a win than it is to predict which high-priced striker will score. 2 or 3 points. So, look for the most expensive options, and the most important thing is to make sure that they are confirmed to play in the game. On countless occasions I have seen elite goalkeepers with the night off in the squads. If you’re not sure which goalkeeper to list, look at his career stats compared to his opponents. Check out their recent games. As in step 1 above, look at your opponents’ offensive ability and the line of play in Las Vegas. Every once in a while, a goalkeeper is historically great, but has failed in recent games. This will reduce your price. If there is no other elite talent playing, start the star in distress. Most likely he will recover soon.

More information is always a good thing; I find it true in life and in the realm of fantasy hockey. Make sure you get as much information as possible when conducting your research. Has Chicago recently lost a player to injury? Does Buffalo play significantly better at home? Is Philadelphia performing well relentlessly? When it’s time to enter your lineup, be conservative. Only risk 1% of your bankroll on each game and only 25% on any lineup. If you have $ 500, it is advisable to enter 25 $ 5 head-to-head games. On a bad night you won’t lose much and on a good night you will see a very high ROI.

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